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As has been diaried here the Yahoo blog called "The Signal" has crunched a bunch of numbers and determined that President Obama is likely to win re-election. Handily.
The methodology of the forecast is interesting. It's not based on public opinion polls. In fact, it takes very few political factors into account. It's based on facts -- mostly economic. And that, of course, has enraged right-wingers.
Forecast of Obama Victory Triggers Wingnut Meltdown
Seeded on Fri Feb 17, 2012 10:30 AM EST
Article Source: Daily Kos
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- Public Discussion (2)
A few things jump out at me from this projection:
-- in 7 states, the projection gives Obama between 48 and 52% of the vote. It has him winning in 6 of them.
-- The model projects Obama to lose Florida, Indiana and North Carolina, all states he won in 2008.
-- One of those states, Florida, is projected to give Obama more than 48% of its vote (with a 3 point margin of error).
-- The model projects Obama to win no state that voted for McCain in 2008.
-- The model projects Obama to win 303 electoral votes, down 62 from 2008.
- 4 votes
#1 - Fri Feb 17, 2012 10:31 AM ESTI might question IA and PA but even switching those Obama wins.
- 2 votes
#2 - Fri Feb 17, 2012 12:23 PM ESTYou're in Easy Mode. If you prefer, you can use XHTML Mode instead. |
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